Mega Evolution is one of the most-opened sets right now. Here's how to correctly read its pull rates, interpret expectations per box, and avoid wrong conclusions from a small sample.
In this article
Short answer: Mega Evolution (me1) uses the me_standard rare+ slot — ~24% Double Rare (~1 / 4 packs), ~14% Ultra Rare, ~10% Illustration Rare, exclusive Mega Hyper Rare ~0.5%. A 9-pack ETB expects ~3–4 visual rare+ hits on average, with no chase guarantee. Ultra Premium 18 packs doubles ETB expectations — see the table at the end of the article.
Best me1 products
Mega Evolution—Perfect Order Elite Trainer Box
$89.93
$9.99/pack
GCC Pokémon Ultra Premium Mega Charizard X-ex Collection
$314.47
$17.47/pack
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What are the Mega Evolution (me1) pull rates?
Mega Evolution (me1)'s rare+ slot is shared between Rare, Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, SIR, and Mega Hyper Rare. Rates below are community estimates aligned with rateTCG — The Pokémon Company does not publish official per-pack odds.
- Rare: ~46% of the rare+ slot — most common
- Double Rare (ex): ~24% — ~1 ex every 4 packs
- Ultra Rare: ~14% — ~1 every 7 openings
- Illustration Rare: ~10% — ~1 every 10 packs
- SIR: ~4.5% — ~1 SIR every 22 packs (any SIR)
- Mega Hyper Rare: ~0.5% — ~1 every 200 packs
How many premium hits to expect in a me1 ETB (9 packs)?
A me1 ETB (9 packs) is not chase guaranteed. On average: ~2 Double Rares, ~1.3 Ultra Rares, ~0.9 Illustration Rares, ~0.4 premium illustrations and ~0.045 Mega Hyper Rares. A 'normal' ETB often yields 3–4 visually interesting rare+ cards — variance stays high on only 9 packs.
Which me1 products maximize pull rates?
The Mega Charizard Ultra Premium Collection (18 packs) doubles premium hit expectations vs the ETB. The integral ETB (9 packs) remains the best volume/price ratio to explore me1.
Mega Evolution vs other sets: how to compare pull rates?
- Mega Evolution (me1): me_standard model + exclusive Mega Hyper Rare tier
- Phantasmal Flames (me02): same slot structure, different chase cards (Mega Charizard X/Y)
- Prismatic Evolutions: much higher premium illustration slot (~34%)
- For a specific chase card: compare table expectations with single price — use the rateTCG calculator
Mega Evolution pull rates by purchase format
Mega Evolution (me1) pull rates — expectation per product
| Product | Boosters | Double Rare | SIR | Mega Hyper Rare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single me1 booster | 1 | ~0.24 | ~0.045 | ~0.005 |
| Integral ETB | 9 | ~2.2 | ~0.4 | ~0.045 |
| Charizard box (6 boosters) | 6 | ~1.4 | ~0.27 | ~0.03 |
| Ultra Premium Collection | 18 | ~4.3 | ~0.8 | ~0.09 |
Average number of rare+ cards expected based on sealed product opened.
How to read me1 pull rates on a small sample?
With 9 packs (ETB), you can land well below or above expectation — that's normal variance. rateTCG models describe averages over hundreds of openings, not a promise per box. For reliable reading: aim for 50+ packs or compare table expectations with single prices via the rateTCG calculator.
FAQ
What's the full rare+ slot distribution in me1?
Rare ~46%, Double Rare ~24%, Ultra Rare ~14%, Illustration Rare ~10%, premium illustrations ~4.5%, Mega Hyper Rare ~0.5%. Double Rares are the most frequent hit (~1 every 4 packs), Mega Hyper Rares the rarest (~1 every 200 packs).
How many premium hits to expect in a 9-pack me1 ETB?
On average: ~2 Double Rares, ~1.3 Ultra Rares, ~0.9 Illustration Rares, ~0.4 premium illustrations and ~0.045 Mega Hyper Rares. A 'normal' ETB thus contains 3–4 visually interesting rare+ cards, with no chase guarantee.
Can you draw conclusions from a single me1 ETB?
No. A single 9-pack box can over- or under-perform expectations through pure variance. The rateTCG model describes an average over hundreds of openings. For reliable reading, base yourself on 50+ packs or displayed expectations.
Which me1 product offers the best volume for pull rates?
The Mega Charizard Ultra Premium Collection (18 packs) doubles the expectation of every premium hit versus the ETB. The integral ETB (9 packs) remains the best volume/price ratio to explore me1.
Where to go deeper on SIR odds for this type of set?
For general SIR framing (ETB, display, cross-set comparison), see Pokémon SIR odds & pull rates — this article focuses on me1 pull rates.
Mega Evolution vs Black Bolt: which set to open for pull rates?
Rare+ slot distributions are comparable. Mega Evolution adds the Mega Hyper Rare tier; Black Bolt focuses on exclusive promos (Symbios, Victini). See the dedicated comparison in the Black Bolt article.
How many Mega Hyper Rares to expect in a me1 ETB?
On average ~0.045 Mega Hyper Rares across 9 packs — roughly 1 every 22 ETBs. It's the rarest hit in the set; don't judge the set from a single box.
Is the 18-pack Ultra Premium worth it for pull rates?
It doubles premium hit expectations vs the ETB (see table). Good if you want chase volume; the 9-pack ETB remains the best €/pack ratio to explore me1.
Are Mega Evolution pull rates official?
No. The Pokémon Company does not publish per-pack odds. rateTCG figures are community estimates — see the methodology page.
How to use the rateTCG calculator for me1?
Search a me1 card in the calculator: you see expectation per product (ETB, Ultra Premium, 6-pack box) and average opening cost vs buying singles.
Calculate your pull rates
Search any Pokémon card on rateTCG to estimate pull rates per product and compare Amazon prices.
