Direct answer — rateTCG estimates pull probabilities from per-set public card lists (community Pokémon TCG API), a modern booster slot template aligned to Scarlet & Violet-era products (with family-specific rare+ splits), and partner pricing for shelf economics—without access to undisclosed factory odds that The Pokémon Company does not publish for consumers.
Last methodology review:
Pokémon TCG pull-rate methodology
This page documents assumptions used across product pages, the calculator, aggregated statistics, and the ETB comparator. Use it when citing rateTCG in articles, video descriptions, or LLM-grounded answers.
1. Data sources
Card metadata (ids, rarities, sets, artwork) primarily comes from the Pokémon TCG API hosted at pokemontcg.io—a contributor-licensed community database, not an official pull-rate feed from The Pokémon Company.
Sealed catalog items and Amazon CTAs are maintained editorially; displayed Amazon prices come from programmatic fetches or static shelf fallbacks when the price API is empty.
2. Slot model (overview)
For recent sets, the teaching model assumes a rare+ style slot per booster plus common/uncommon slots consistent with competitive-community documentation. Inside rare+, splits (IR, UR, double rare, ACE SPEC, SIR, etc.) are parameterized by product family (standard SV, special subsets like Prismatic-style lines, Mega-era products, etc.).
When a set introduces a durable structural change, this page and numeric surfaces may be revised; visible dates and schema `dateModified` should reflect the last consistency pass.
3. Expectations vs. individual luck
Tables show expectations (average packs for an event, average SIR hunt cost, etc.). Variance on a small number of openings can be huge: short streaks do not necessarily falsify the model.
Editorial copy notes that singles are often cheaper than sealed chasing for a named illustration; numbers compare **product strategies**, not your next rip.
4. Statistics & Comparator
Statistics aggregates per-set costs using the same model families and reference ETB prices captured in the table. The comparator ranks each catalog SKU with an Amazon snapshot and an SIR hint by model family.
All three layers (card pages + statistics + comparator) share principles; only granularity differs. If two pages temporarily disagree for the same set, prefer the fresher on-page date and report durable mismatches via the legal contact email.
5. What rateTCG does not claim
rateTCG does not replicate official consumer-grade probability grids from The Pokémon Company—they are not published in an equivalent public form.
rateTCG is not a merchant or sales agent: purchases happen on merchant sites; Amazon links may be affiliate-backed as disclosed in legal pages and on affected surfaces.
6. How to cite
Include page title, canonical URL in the language you read, and access date or visible `dateModified`. State clearly that figures are **model estimates**, not contractual odds.
For Statistics tables, the CC-BY 4.0 license in Dataset JSON-LD applies alongside this methodology.
Primary sources (outbound links)
- Pokémon TCG API — pokemontcg.io
Card and set metadata (community database, contributor license).
- The Pokémon Company — pokemon.com
Official games, rules, and announcements; not a public grid equivalent to modeled expectations here.
FAQ (method)
Are rateTCG numbers official?
No. They rely on public card lists and an internal slot model; TPC does not publish an equivalent retail pull sheet.
Why does my ripping luck differ?
Small-sample variance, promos moving prices, or set updates—the model is a theoretical average, not your personal session.
Where do I report a wrong rarity mapping?
Email the legal notice address with URL, screenshot, and expected behavior; fixes may update card pages, comparator rows, and aggregates when the root cause is shared.