Pull rates are at the heart of every Pokémon booster purchase. Understanding these probabilities helps you make smarter buying decisions and avoid disappointment when a box doesn't deliver the card you wanted.
What is a pull rate?
A pull rate is the probability of pulling a specific card from a booster pack. A pull rate of 1/100 means you'll find that card roughly once per 100 opened packs on average. The Pokémon Company has never published official rates, but the collector community has aggregated millions of opening data points to estimate these probabilities.
A standard Pokémon booster contains 10 cards: 5 Commons, 3 Uncommons and 1 rare+ card. That last slot is the most important: it's where Double Rares, Ultra Rares, Illustration Rares and Special Illustration Rares appear.
Booster structure: the card slots
- 5 Common cards (fixed slot)
- 3 Uncommon cards (fixed slot)
- 1 rare+ slot: can be Rare / Double Rare / Ultra Rare / Illustration Rare / SIR / Hyper Rare
- 1 Basic Energy (or digital code card depending on set)
The rare+ card follows a probability distribution specific to each expansion. In Mega Evolution sets, Double Rares represent ~24% of the rare+ slot, SIRs ~4.5%. In Prismatic Evolutions (sv8pt5), SIRs rise to ~34% — explaining the set's exceptional popularity.
How rateTCG calculates expected pull rates
rateTCG uses a model based on each expansion's complete card list (from the Pokémon TCG API). For each rarity, we divide the slot probability by the number of cards of that rarity in the set. The resulting expectation shows the average number of copies expected when opening a full box.
For example: if a set has 10 SIRs and the SIR slot probability is 4.5%, the chance of pulling one specific SIR from a single pack is 4.5% / 10 = 0.0045, or roughly 1 in 222 packs. In a 9-pack ETB, that's about 1 in 25.
Which set has the best pull rates in 2026?
Prismatic Evolutions (sv8pt5) remains the set with the best SIR (Special Illustration Rare) rates: ~34% of the rare+ slot vs 4–5% for most other sets. It's the top choice for collectors specifically targeting full-art illustration cards.
The Mega Evolution expansion offers a wide variety of rarities and highly sought-after cards (Mega Charizard, Mega Lucario). Although SIR rates are lower, the value of cards pulled is often higher.
Share this article
https://ratetcg.com/en/pokemon/articles/comprendre-pull-rates-pokemon
Boxes with good pull rates
Pokemon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Prismatic Evolutions Binder Collection
9 packs$26.99
Pokemon Scarlet & Purple Elite Trainer Set - Prismatic Evolutions of The Pokemon TCG (1 Fully Illustrated Promo Card, 9 Booster Packs & Premium Game Accessories)
9 packs$219.99
Pokemon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Prismatic Evolutions Booster Pack (Random Art) - 10 Cards
1 packs$20.99
Pokemon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Prismatic Evolutions Poster Collection
9 packs$58.88
Amazon partner links - we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Tips to optimize your openings
- Target one specific set rather than mixing boosters from multiple expansions
- ETBs (9–11 packs) usually offer the best pack-per-euro ratio
- Keep Common and Uncommon cards to trade
- Use rateTCG to compare expected value before buying
- If you want a specific card, compare direct purchase cost vs opening packs
Rare+ slot distribution by expansion (rateTCG model)
Rare+ slot distribution by expansion (rateTCG model)
| Rarity | Mega Evolution (me1) | Prismatic Evolutions (sv8pt5) | Shrouded Fable (sv6pt5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | ~24% | ~28% | ~22% |
| Ultra Rare | ~14% | ~10% | ~15% |
| Illustration Rare | ~10% | ~6% | ~12% |
| Special Illustration Rare | ~4.5% | ~34% | ~5% |
| Hyper / Mega Hyper Rare | ~0.5% | ~4% | ~0.5% |
Drop rate comparison by rarity across three major 2026 sets.
FAQ
What is a pull rate in Pokémon TCG?
It's the estimated probability of pulling a given card from a booster pack. Example: a 1/222 pull rate means you need roughly 222 packs on average to pull that card once. The Pokémon Company does not publish official rates — rateTCG relies on community models.
Why is the rare+ slot so decisive?
Each pack contains 10 cards: 5 commons, 3 uncommons and 1 rare+ slot (Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, SIR, Hyper Rare). This single slot concentrates all opening value. Commons and uncommons are virtually guaranteed.
Why do pull rates differ between Mega Evolution and Prismatic Evolutions?
Each expansion has its own rare+ slot distribution. In me1, SIRs account for ~4.5% of the slot. In sv8pt5 (Prismatic Evolutions), they rise to ~34%. Result: a SIR drops roughly 7× more often in Prismatic than in Mega Evolution.
How do you use the rateTCG calculator in practice?
Search for a card (e.g. Mega Charizard ex SIR), open its product page, then compare the 'per box' expectation across catalogue products. The calculator multiplies per-pack probability by the number of boosters in the chosen sealed product.
Calculate your pull rates
Search any Pokémon card on rateTCG to estimate pull rates per product and compare Amazon prices.
