Special Illustration Rares (SIRs) are the most chased cards in modern Pokémon TCG, and the hardest to pull on purpose. If you're searching for SIR odds, Pokémon SIR chance, or chances of pulling an SIR, this guide translates community pull rates into plain numbers for booster boxes, ETBs, and current sets like Chaos Rising (ME04).
In this article
You are not guaranteed a SIR in a booster box. One pack = low odds. Nine packs (a standard Elite Trainer Box) = better odds of some premium hit, but a SIR can still miss. Understanding SIR rates by set matters more than opening « one more ETB » at random.
Best sealed products for SIR odds
Scarlet & Purple Elite Trainer Set - Prismatic Evolutions
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$23.89/pack
GCC Pokémon Ultra Premium Mega Charizard X-ex Collection
$324.42
$18.02/pack
Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box
$89.93
$9.99/pack
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What is a Pokémon SIR card?
A SIR (Special Illustration Rare) is a full-art illustration card with an extended scene: trainers, Pokémon, and atmosphere beyond a standard Illustration Rare (IR). In Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution era sets, SIRs share the rare+ slot in each booster with IRs, ex cards, and other hits. They're the cards collectors mean when they ask what is an SIR Pokémon or what is a SIR Pokémon card.
What are Pokémon SIR odds in 2026?
The Pokémon Company does not publish official per-pack SIR probabilities. The SIR hit rates below are community estimates (display openings, prereleases) aligned with rateTCG models. Use them to compare sets, not as a guarantee.
- Mega Evolution sets (ME01, ME02): SIR slot ~4.5% of the rare+ slot · roughly 1 any SIR per 30–40 packs
- Prismatic Evolutions (sv8pt5): SIR slot ~34%, highest SIR rates Pokémon collectors track in SV era
- Chaos Rising / Chaos Ascendant (ME04): similar to ME standard · ~1 SIR per 30–40 packs on average
For one specific SIR (e.g. Mega Charizard ex), divide the slot rate by how many SIRs exist in that set (~6 on ME04, ~25 on Prismatic Evolutions). Example Mega Evolution: 4.5% ÷ 8 ≈ 0.56% per pack → about 1 in 178 packs for your chase card. That is your SIR chance for a named card.
How do ETB and booster-box volumes change SIR odds?
If you want a yes/no on are you guaranteed an SIR in a booster box, use the dedicated SIR guaranteed in ETB vs display guide. This section is pack-count math: chance of SIR in booster box and how many SIRs in a booster box for a 9-pack ETB or a 36-pack display.
- 9 packs (ETB): odds of at least one SIR (any SIR) ~20–25% on typical Mega Evolution sets · often 90%+ on Prismatic Evolutions
- 6-pack bundle: an SIR is still unlikely; variance is huge (community reports 0 SIR in 60+ packs happen)
- 36-pack display: expect about 1–2 SIRs on average on ME-style sets; more on Prismatic Evolutions
What is the Chaos Rising (ME04) SIR pull rate?
For Chaos Rising SIR pull rate / Chaos Ascendant ME04, community models match other Mega Evolution expansions: about 1 Special Illustration Rare per 30–40 booster packs (any SIR in the set). With ~6 SIRs in ME04, a specific chase SIR (e.g. Mega Greninja ex) is still roughly 1 in 180+ packs on average. See our full Chaos Ascendant ME04 guide for chase cards, ETB, and 6-pack bundle pricing.
How many packs for better SIR odds?
Odds of SIR improve with pack count, not wishful thinking. 18 packs (two ETBs) on Mega Evolution: ~10% for one named SIR. Same volume on Prismatic Evolutions: ~22% for one named SIR, which is why SIR hunting often points to sv8pt5 products. SIR hit rate for a single pack stays tiny either way.
SIR pull rates by expansion and pack volume
SIR pull rates by expansion and pack volume
| Expansion | SIR slot rate | Avg packs per SIR | 9-pack ETB (≥1 SIR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution (me1–me02) | ~4.5% of rare+ | 1 / 30–40 packs | ~20–25% |
| Prismatic Evolutions (sv8pt5) | ~34% of rare+ | 1 / 3 packs | ~95%+ |
| Chaos Ascendant (me04) | ~4.5% (ME model) | 1 / 30–40 packs | ~20–25% |
| Shrouded Fable (sv6.5) | ~4.5% | 1 / 30–40 packs | ~20–25% |
| 36-pack display (ME) | ~4.5% | 1–2 SIR on average | Near certain (≥1 SIR) |
The article already includes SIR FAQ — this table adds rateTCG benchmark figures.
FAQ
What is a SIR Pokémon card?
A SIR (Special Illustration Rare) is a premium full-art illustration card, rarer than an Illustration Rare, pulled from the rare+ slot in modern Pokémon TCG boosters. Collectors often search what is an SIR Pokémon when they see the SIR label on pack odds videos or price lists.
What are the odds of pulling a SIR?
On typical Mega Evolution sets, expect about 4.5% SIR slot rate and roughly 1 SIR per 30–40 packs (any SIR). Prismatic Evolutions is much higher (~34% SIR slot). That's your baseline SIR odds before targeting one card.
What are the chances of pulling an SIR from one pack?
For any SIR in the set: ~2.5–3.3% per pack on ME-style sets (1÷30 to 1÷40). For one specific SIR, divide by the number of SIRs in the set, often under 1% per pack.
Are you guaranteed an SIR in a booster box?
No. A booster box or ETB does not guarantee a Special Illustration Rare. You can open 9 packs and get ex or IR hits with zero SIRs. That is normal variance.
How many SIRs are in a booster box (ETB)?
An ETB has 9 packs, not 36. On average you might see 0 or 1 SIR per ETB on Mega Evolution sets; 1–2 SIRs is more likely across a 36-pack display. How many SIR per booster box depends on whether the product is 9 or 36 packs.
What is the Chaos Rising SIR pull rate?
Chaos Rising (ME04) follows Mega Evolution-style math: about 1 SIR per 30–40 packs for any SIR, with ~6 SIR cards in the set. See our ME04 guide for chase prices and products.
How many packs to pull a specific SIR?
Formula: (SIR slot %) ÷ (number of SIRs in set). Example ME: 4.5% ÷ 8 ≈ 0.56% → ~178 packs average for one target SIR. Use the rateTCG calculator for your exact card and set.
Calculate your pull rates
Search any Pokémon card on rateTCG to estimate pull rates per product and compare Amazon prices.
