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Pokémon Illustration Rare probability: what are your real odds?
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Pokémon Illustration Rare probability: what are your real odds?

By Thomas Laize ·

Illustration Rares are dream cards — but their frequency depends heavily on the set. Here are the key benchmarks to know before buying.

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Illustration Rare vs SIR

Illustration Rares (IR) and Special Illustration Rares (SIR) both occupy the rare+ slot in a booster. IRs have a higher probability (~10% of the slot in most sets) while SIRs are rarer (~4.5% in standard sets, up to 34% in Prismatic Evolutions). Both feature full-art extended illustrations.

  • Standard SV sets (sv1–sv7): IR ~10%, SIR ~4.5% of rare+ slot
  • Prismatic Evolutions (sv8pt5): SIR ~34% — the highest rate in any set
  • Mega Evolution (me1): IR ~10%, SIR ~4.5%, Mega Hyper Rare ~0.5%

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Prismatic Evolutions remains the most SIR-friendly set, but competition for the top cards (Eeveelutions) is fierce on the secondary market.

Illustration Rare odds by expansion

Illustration Rare odds by expansion

ExpansionSet codeIR rate (rare+ slot)Avg IR / 9 packs (ETB)
Mega Evolutionme1~10%0 to 1 (often 1)
Shrouded Fablesv6.5~10%0 to 1
Prismatic Evolutionssv8pt5~10% (IR) · SIR ~34%1 to 3 illustration hits
Black Boltsv9~10%0 to 1
Chaos Ascendantme04~10%0 to 1

rateTCG community estimates — rare+ slot only.

FAQ

What are the odds of pulling an Illustration Rare per pack?

In a standard set like Mega Evolution (me1) or Shrouded Fable (sv6.5), the IR slot is roughly 10% of the rare+ pool — about 1 IR every 10 packs on average, any IR in the set.

Is an IR easier to pull than a SIR?

Yes, clearly: IR is roughly twice as common as SIR on ME sets (~10% vs ~4.5%). On Prismatic Evolutions (sv8pt5), the SIR slot jumps to ~34%, which changes the usual math entirely.

How many IRs in a 9-pack ETB?

On a standard set: typically 0 to 1 IR, sometimes 2 with luck. It's not guaranteed — variance is real on just 9 packs.

Which set is best for Illustration Rare hunting?

Shrouded Fable and Mega Evolution both offer strong IR pools with distinct artwork. To maximize SIRs instead of IRs, target Prismatic Evolutions. Check rateTCG pull rates before buying.

Calculate your pull rates

Search any Pokémon card on rateTCG to estimate pull rates per product and compare Amazon prices.

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