Charizard-ex is one of the most sought-after cards. Its actual pull rate depends on the set and how many packs you open — not just luck.
In this article
Why Charizard-ex pull rate seems low
The target card lands in a rare+ slot shared across multiple rarities. The more cards of the same rarity in the set, the lower the individual probability. For a Double Rare Charizard-ex in a set with ~20 Double Rares: 24% ÷ 20 = 1.2% per pack — roughly 1 in 83 packs.
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For the Illustration Rare version: 10% ÷ 8 IR = 1.25% per pack (~1 in 80). For the SIR: 4.5% ÷ 8 SIR = 0.56% per pack (~1 in 178 packs). In a 9-pack ETB, your chance of hitting the SIR is about 5%.
Which boxes maximize your chances?
Charizard ex pull rates by version (me1 set)
Charizard ex pull rates by version (me1 set)
| Version | Probability/pack | Avg packs (1 card) | In 9-pack ETB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | ~1.2% | ~83 | ~10.8% cumulative |
| Illustration Rare | ~1.25% | ~80 | ~11.1% cumulative |
| Special Illustration Rare | ~0.56% | ~178 | ~5% cumulative |
| Ultra Premium (18 boosters) | ~0.56% | ~178 | ~10% cumulative |
Estimated per-pack probabilities and per-sealed-product expectations.
FAQ
What's the probability of pulling Charizard ex as Double Rare in me1?
Double Rares account for ~24% of the rare+ slot. With roughly 20 Double Rares in me1, the individual probability for Charizard ex DR is ~1.2% per pack — about 1 every 83 packs.
How many packs to expect the Mega Charizard ex SIR?
SIRs represent ~4.5% of the rare+ slot, divided by ~8 SIRs in the set = ~0.56% per pack. On average, ~178 packs are needed for a specific Charizard SIR. In a 9-pack ETB, cumulative probability is about 5%.
Which box maximizes Charizard ex pull chances?
The Ultra Premium Collection (18 me1 boosters) offers the largest volume in a single order. For the SIR specifically, 18 packs give ~10% cumulative probability — still below buying the single directly.
Does pull rate change depending on the box purchased?
No. All me1 boosters share the same odds whether bought in an ETB, shiny box or Ultra Premium. Only the total number of packs opened changes your cumulative expectation.
Calculate your pull rates
Search any Pokémon card on rateTCG to estimate pull rates per product and compare Amazon prices.
