Short answer: it depends on the rarity and how many competing cards exist. Useful answer: think in expected value, not certainty.
In this article
Quick estimation method
- Identify the rarity of the target card
- Find the slot probability for that rarity (e.g. 4.5% for SIR in standard sets)
- Divide by the number of cards of that rarity in the set
- That gives your per-pack probability — inverse it for average packs needed
Example: targeting a specific SIR in Mega Evolution (me1). Slot: 4.5%, ~8 SIR cards in set. Per-pack odds: 4.5%/8 = 0.56%. Average packs needed: 1/0.0056 ≈ 178 packs. In ETB terms: ~20 ETBs on average. Use the rateTCG calculator for any specific card.
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Average packs by target rarity (standard ME set)
Average packs by target rarity (standard ME set)
| Target rarity | Rare+ slot rate | Cards in tier (≈) | Avg packs | ETB equivalent (9) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (RR) | ~25% | ~20 | ~40 | ~4–5 ETBs |
| Ultra Rare (AR) | ~14% | ~8 | ~70 | ~8 ETBs |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~10% | ~6 | ~100 | ~11 ETBs |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~4.5% | ~8 | ~280 (any SIR) · ~178 (one SIR) | ~31 ETBs (any) · ~20 (one SIR) |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | ~2% | ~3 | ~500+ | ~55+ ETBs |
Theoretical expected value — any card in tier, Mega Evolution–style me1.
FAQ
How do you calculate packs needed for a specific card?
Formula: (rare+ slot rate) ÷ (number of cards at that rarity in the set) = per-pack probability. Invert for expected packs. Example: Mega Charizard SIR: 4.5% ÷ 8 ≈ 0.56% → ~178 packs.
Does expected value guarantee the card?
No. Expected value is a statistical average: you might pull it in 5 packs or never see it in 200. Use it to compare strategies, not to promise outcomes.
How many packs for a Double Rare (RR)?
RR is ~25% of the rare+ slot with roughly 15–25 RR cards in the set. For one specific RR: ~1% per pack → about 1 every 100 packs on average — far more accessible than a chase SIR.
When is buying the single smarter?
When the single price is below expected pack cost (booster price × estimated packs). rateTCG and marketplace listings make this comparison quick.
Calculate your pull rates
Search any Pokémon card on rateTCG to estimate pull rates per product and compare Amazon prices.
